Investment Insights

The Wall Street Sentiment Barometer

  • Jun 22, 2024
  • Craig Farley

Shown below, amongst our favourite sentiment measures from our friends at 3Fourteen Research.

This year’s risk asset rally is finally breaking the resolve of Wall Street strategists, who have remained steadfastly bearish on the prospects for S&P gains in 2024…until now.

So far in June, strategists have lifted their median price target for the bellwether S&P 500 Index higher by 250 basis points, placing it in the top 2% of monthly target raises historically.

Coming into 2024, the contrast could not have been greater, with strategists expecting flat S&P returns. The catch-up trade is firmly in play, as a relentless stock market rally has pressured Wall St. sell side houses to get out in front of the market.

What is perhaps more interesting (shown in the bottom clip) is that despite noisy headlines, the spread capturing the difference between the current S&P index level and the median Wall St strategist S&P index price target for year-end reads -3.2%, still low in the context of this current cycle:


Looking back at recent history, outsized strategist target increases have been a flashing red signal for modern bull markets. If current market strength, fuelled by tech fever, continues as we head into election season, we might expect to see a high positive spread emerge in response. For now, we watch and wait.

TEAM Asset Management is a trading name of Theta Enhanced Asset Management Limited which is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission.