A (Very) Bad Day at The Office

Shown below, the rolling 90-day betting odds on who will be the next US President from Predict It:

(Source: www.predictit.org)

Jaws that had been opening slowing into last night’s key election debate between Donald Trump and the incumbent Joe Biden widened sharply within minutes of their opening remarks.

The gap reflects some additional progress from Trump but is largely the result of what has been labelled a ‘train-wreck’ of a performance from Biden.

Those within the American population that wanted, and needed, reassurance on Biden’s stamina and mental fitness are more unconvinced now than at any other time during this cycle.

In his battle for re-election, last night’s debate cements a theme that has remained a constant throughout Biden’s campaign.

Namely that it is not current economic performance or the party’s domestic and foreign policies that most concerns voters, but perceptions of Biden himself, and whether he is up to the task, that is the major swing factor.

Worrying times for the Democrat Party and its supporters, who find themselves in firefighting mode as we enter the election home straight.

For investors, global markets, so far, taking the outcome in their stride.